All Eyes on Elon

Figured there was no better time to launch the first edition of my newsletter than the morning after the biggest autonomous vehicle (AV) event of our lifetime. For those who don’t know me, I’ve been covering the rideshare space for 10 years. I’ve driven for Uber and Lyft, interviewed all the CEOs lots of times, and our media properties currently reach millions of rideshare drivers a month. And while I may not be an AV expert, I do know what it takes to build, scale and run a profitable rideshare company.

Now that Waymo and Tesla are getting serious about entering the rideshare game, I’m excited to cover and analyze the industry from the ‘rideshare lens’. Readers can expect a weekly newsletter (no fluff) that catches you up on all things driverless and one analysis piece every week or two.

Alright, let’s dive in!

Tesla’s Robotaxi Event

Last night, all eyes were on Elon! I was jet-lagged from a trip to London for Uber’s big Go Get Zero event, so I was asleep by 7:30 pm. But people tell me that just down the road at the Warner Brothers lot in Burbank, Elon unveiled the long awaited Robotaxi to be produced in 2026 and priced under $30,000. He also later introduced the Robovan which can carry up to 20 people.

I’ve never been a fan of the Cybertruck design but my first impression of the Robotaxi and Robovan was that both vehicles look amazing. It feels like these cars came from the future (I, Robot anyone?!) and it’s impressive that the company made a handful of these vehicles with ‘Full Self Driving’ (FSD) and they were able to complete a neat demo around the lot last night. I feel like that is a big accomplishment on its own that got glossed over because of all the amazing achievements Elon’s companies have made over the years.

Practically, I liked the two seat design for the Robotaxi since we know that more than 90% of all trips are single or double occupancy. But I remain skeptical that 2 people, let alone 20 people will want to share a ride. Uber once touted UberPOOL as the savior of rideshare, but it’s clear by now that American consumers do not like to share rides. Too much friction and it requires high density matching.

Design-wise, I liked this visual comparison of the Robotaxi to Waymo’s vehicle since I doubt anyone would argue the Waymo looks ‘cooler’ than the Robotaxi. Those gull wing doors are pretty sweet!

But what we didn’t get from this event was any clear guidance around the business model or any type of breakthrough announcement in the Full Self Driving (FSD) technology.

I’ve owned a Tesla for 8 years and love the FSD product but as Alex Roy puts it, “If you keep your hands on the steering wheel, pay attention AND learn to understand its optimal domain (lighting, weather, situational complexity), Tesla FSD (Supervised) is by far the best driver assistance system on the market.”

Tesla’s FSD isn’t full self driving, so not comparable yet to the Waymo Driver, and this event did not change that. This still remains the biggest question mark in my mind to Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions. If/when the technology will get there. Elon of course promised ambitious timelines but everyone knows to take those with a grain of salt.

And then of course, there are all the other challenges about running a rideshare business (see Kyle’s thread and Tim’s article down below!).

Overall, it was a cool and fun event. Nobody throws a better party than Elon Musk. But wake me up when a Tesla vehicle hits the road and starts doing paid rides without a driver :)

Top Stories of the Week

Waymo public rides started in Texas last week. Users in Texas will now be able to book rides in Waymo vehicles. For now, they can only book these rides on the Waymo app, and booking will likely come to the Uber app soon.

Former head of vehicle programs and new product introduction at Tesla, Daniel Ho joins Waymo as Program Director (h/t Sawyer Merritt). Daniel Ho who started his career at Tesla in November 2013, as the Model S Program Manager, brings over 10 years of EV experience to AV Ride-hailing giant Waymo. This move came just over 2 years after assuming the role of Director of Vehicle Programs and New Product Introduction at Tesla, a role in which he reported directly to Elon Musk.

Kyle Vogt is back..on Twitter with an epic thread (link) sharing his thoughts on what it takes to launch a new robotaxi company. Worth a read since you see how much there is to do even after you figure out the FSD part.

Announcements | Partnerships | Funding

Waymo announces a new partnership with Hyundai to integrate its fully autonomous tech into Hyundai’s all-electric IONIQ 5 for its Waymo One fleet (Link). Not a shock that Waymo is looking to transition from its fleet of Jaguar I-Pace (Starts at $73,000) vehicles to cheaper models like the IONIQ 5 (Starts at $43,000). The latter also has 60 miles more range than the I-Pace. Personaly, I like the look too.

Germany’s Vay partners with Bayanat, a UAE startup, to Expand Remote Driving to Middle East, Africa, and some Asia Pacific countries (Link). Related, check out my interview with Justin Spratt, from Vay, here.

Last week, Uber announced a new deal to bring Chinese autonomous driving company, WeRide’s robotaxis to the platform in Abu Dhabi (Link). This comes on the heels of similar partnership announcements with AV-driving companies like Cruise, Waymo and Wayve.

This week, Uber partnered with ex-Yandex self-driving group for robotaxis and robot delivery (Link). Starting in Austin, Uber customers will be able to receive Uber Eats deliveries via Avride’s sidewalk robots, with plans to expand to Dallas and Jersey City, New Jersey, later this year. Subsequently, in 2025, Rides in Avride’s autonomous vehicles will be available for Uber customers in Dallas.

Uber is crushing it with the AV partnerships, investors will be happy about this. Here’s a neat photo I took during Uber’s Go Get Zero event in London this week with all of their AV partners listed on one slide.

AVs behaving badly

‘Founder Mode’ saved this Waymo after it ‘crashed’ into a human-driven minibus in San Francisco, right in front of YC’s Founder after party (Link). The video captures a bunch of CEOs trying to help the AV find its way again after the incident.

Uber and Lyft drivers use Teslas as makeshift Robotaxis, raising safety concerns (Link). A Las Vegas Tesla driver, Justin Yoon, said on YouTube, the Tesla software failed to slow his vehicle even after the SUV emerged from a blind spot created by another vehicle. FSD is an impressive product but it is most definitely not full self driving as the name would imply. And as you can see from the comments by Uber and Lyft’s spokespersons in the article, there’s no policy around FSD while rideshare driving, and it’s up to the driver to decide whether to use or not. Personally, I’d be ok with using FSD while rideshare driving but you always need to be ready to take over. Not sure I’d trust my driver to do the same though..

Other Stuff

Women are turning to driverless taxis over rideshare services (Link). 23-year-old Abby Vigil cited an instance where a rideshare driver reminded her of the unsettling fact that he knew where she lived and worked after telling her he would like her to be his girlfriend. Incidents like this have led more women to choose the driverless operations of robotaxis like Waymo, and even the rideshare companies themselves are pushing women only services like Lyft’s Women+ Connect.

But it’s not all roses when it comes to robotaxis and safety for female passengers. Recently, a San Francisco woman raised safety concerns as her Waymo ride stalled after two men got in front of it demanding her number (Link). Thankfully, the ordeal only lasted a few minutes but I can only imagine how scary this would be. Waymo will need to figure out a better solution for ‘SOS’ type situations like this and probably needs to step up their PR/comms game, seems like a real missed opportunity not to reply/address this situation.

On self driving, Waymo is playing chess while Tesla plays checkers. We'll know Tesla is serious about Robotaxis when it starts hiring remote operators (link). This is an oldie but goodie and I agree with Tim’s analysis here. A staggered rollout with remote operators is the most realistic path to a Tesla Robotaxi network but as we know, Musk is the type of guy to ‘go big or go home’. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tried to skip this step.

Highly recommend this interview (link) from the All-In Summit with Waymo CEO Tekedra Mawakana. She talks about why Waymo avoids freeways, and talks about the company’s relationship with Uber. The only topic she avoided was unit economics :)

Waymo convoy on the way to the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport in Arizona (Link).

Shots fired at Elon Musk (link).

And back at Waymo (Link).

See you next week! How’d I do? Let me know.